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Seminario: Socio-economic effects of an earthquake: Does socio-economic heterogeneity matter? A counterfactual empirical analysis on the 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake

Martedi 7 novembre 2017, ore 14.15 - Aula seminari, ala ovest

Autore:  Francesco Pagliacci e Margherita Russo

Estimates of macroeconomic effects of natural disaster have a long tradition in economic literature. Nevertheless, when considering earthquakes, studies usually overlook some issues: proper identification of the affected area’s boundaries, socio-economic heterogeneity within it, assessment of a proper counterfactual comparison. By taking the 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake (Italy) as a case-study, this paper proposes a comprehensive framework to answer these questions in a sub-regional scale. Firstly, with a cluster analysis, the heterogeneity issue is tackled, by highlighting different typologies of municipalities, within the affected area. Secondly, a difference-in-differences analysis is performed, highlighting that, since the earthquake, some clusters within the affected area (and some municipalities within them) have performed better than others. This result contrasts with the one observed by comparing the whole affected area with the non-affected one or with the entire region, with implications for policy interventions and for monitoring short-medium term programs of recovery processes.

[Ultimo aggiornamento: 08/11/2017 09:11:46]